Us economic recessions dating
Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator For example, invert an exchange rate by using formula 1/a, where “a” refers to the first FRED data series added to this line.The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. Or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates, a and b, by using the formula a - b.The history of recessions in the United States since the Great Depression show they are a natural, though painful, part of the business cycle.The National Bureau of Economic Research defines when a recession starts.Whereas the average GDP growth rate in the nine quarters following a trough was 5.7 percent in the past recoveries, it has been only 2.7 percent since 2013Q1.Similarly, nine quarters into the expansion, labour markets still show considerable slack and employment creation has been very sluggish, in line with the very slow recovery of output.The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%. Use the assigned data series variables (a, b, c, etc.) together with operators ( , -, *, /, ^, etc.), parentheses , and constants (1, 1.5, 2, etc.) to create your own formula (e.g., 1/a, a-b, (a b)/2, (a/(a b c))*100).
The committee declared that the trough of the recession that started after the 2011Q3 peak has been reached in 2013Q1.
For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough.
For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below.
Findings Methodology Data sources FAQs The CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is composed of nine CEPR researchers, establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven original euro-area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the euro area as a whole from 1999 onwards.
The Committee released its new findings on 1 October 2015.